@cshentrup the basic idea is (hedged in this post!) to take ones utilitarian models so seriously, when choosing a course of action, one should simply multiply modeled probabilities of outcomes by modeled utilities and choose whatever yields the biggest number, regardless of how counterintuitive or "wrong" it might seem. i take it as a bad form of utilitarian hubris, underestimating model risk and misunderstanding basic aspects of human cognition.