@SteveRoth this analysis by @blair_fix is compelling in conventional terms, but a bit more complicated if holding gains are computed as income, per your work, given the effect of interest rates on term asset prices.
was ZIRP a gift to capital (bc asset price appreciation) or a win for workers (bc factor income shares)? https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2023/04/16/how-interest-rates-redistribute-income/
@bretdawson i half agree; perhaps that’s a start.
playing with generative models feels like psychoanalysis: free associate to *this*, let’s see where you go!
but it’s hard to know if you are “psychoanalyzing” society, the training set, or idiosyncrasies in the way the model interprets the training set. ymmv!
What would it look like to separate payments and deposits from the risk lending side of banking?
@SteveRoth thinks it through. https://open.substack.com/pub/wealtheconomics/p/perfectly-safe-deposits-and-robust
@dpp @mimsical all i really know of is the econtwitter.net instance (i think @t0nyyates might have inspired/conspired it, though i am not sure). here’s it’s local feed: https://econtwitter.net/public/local
today in government in the sunshine… https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/education/os-ne-education-public-records-cost-20230413-6e45hkjnvnfkto2nioj3wgemyi-story.html
@stephenjudkins it’s a tail risk play i guess. if you’re the R nominee, you win if the crisis is bad enough they won’t vote the incumbent. you are at worst the 2nd most likely person in the world to become president.
(he’d not have had to veto it, he solicited it, made clear in advance he’d sign. FL leg does nothing he doesn’t want it to do. we’ll see in a minute about FL jud.)
“Decades of assuming that govt actors don’t know enough to intervene in the marketplace have created a self-fulfilling prophecy in which govt actors actually don’t know, because they have never done industrial policy, have never been taught to do industrial policy, and lack the appropriate institutions and information to do it well, even if they abstractly knew how. Parts of the govt that used to be directly engaged with economic planning have withered away” @henryfarrell https://crookedtimber.org/2023/04/13/industrial-policy-and-the-new-knowledge-problem/
ron desantis just made himself unelectable in any national race. probably even in florida next time around.
@failedLyndonLaRouchite @markhughes really? the reveal isn’t that we spy on allies. it’s the specifics. it won’t help Sisi’s counterintelligence, or put US sympathetic persons at risk, to know exactly what has been eavesdropped? it won’t harm our intelligence broadly if pessimistic assessments of a battlefield situation have to be treated as public, so become as impossible to make in private as they are in public (reasonably, since public pronouncements can self-fulfill).
@maria your writing is insufficiently derivative. let’s fix that for you!
I seek to follow high ethical standards, so there is no reason that any law should apply to me. https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/3948631-the-supreme-court-has-no-code-of-conduct-its-starting-to-show/
@failedLyndonLaRouchite @markhughes i think it very much the case that information is way overclassified for bullshit CYA and office politics reasons. it’s also the case that some information are correctly classified. this leaker who was trying to impress his gamer friends waa not leaking inter-office embarrassments. he was leaking revealing details about surveillance of very “hot” ongoing crises that quite properly were classified.
@DetroitDan this is a case, unlike Snowden or Manning, where the person was not a whistleblower, not trying to make public what he thought the democratic public should know. he was showing off to friends, from whom he expected (but ultimately did not receive) discretion.
@DetroitDan (i have no problem, by the way, with Musk’s revealing Twitter internal discussions. and i agree that those revelations showed various state-adjacent factions trying to influence Twitter. but they also, I think, show pre-Musk Twitter as being willing and able to give those factions the finger, as it often did. i think better, not worse, of pre-Musk Twitter, and especially of Yoel Roth who comes off as super high integrity, after the big reveal.)
think of the possibilities for honeytraps made from kindness rather than lust or avarice.
place a politically inconvenient person in a situation where a cooperating undocumented migrant needs help. have the migrant in some offhand way reveal their status. if the kindness does not immediately desist, you’ve made yourself a felon.
for a political coalition built around unkindness as retribution for perceived grievance, this kind of trap may be usefully selective.
how on earth would a 21 year old member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard have access to all this shit? isn’t access to classified information compartamentalized, even among people with security clearances that would permit them, if they had a good reason, to see it? you’d think the US security state would have learned a little from Manning and Snowden? maybe they need to learn from firms like Apple about how to restrict information flows by default?
You’ve got to love the implications for liberty of a decision that says any doctors that might be called to treat a person who takes a risk that doesn’t work out are “harmed” and have standing to sue to prevent the risk-taking.
Doctors Against Skiing could put an end to the lax permitting process that allows such a dangerous sport to exist.
Shouldn’t ER doctors have standing then to sue gun manufacturers?
an end of history is like a permanently high plateau.
really at the heart of civil society in the modern South is the service organization Enbies of the Confederacy.
