Silicon Valley, at least rhetorically, used to be all "power to the people", let's democratize all the things.
But now is the first time in a decade a popular movement on the internet is actually achieving something — outside of politics, without demanding state action of any kind.
It should be right up, um, Silicon Valley's alley. But the titans of tech seem oddly mum on this liberation of and decentralization from Twitter.
@nickinny if so, i think it would be a fairly virtuous experiment in disinflation. is it possible to disinflate through negative wealth effects on assetholders, reducing any need to disemploy people with fewer assets? i don't know, but i'd think better of the fed if they see that as an aim, a desirable strategy.
“Private companies are free to set their own content moderation policies, and can discriminate against any viewpoint they wish. They can and do remove ‘lawful but awful’ speech like racist diatribes, vaccine denial, election denial, and other conservative fever-dreams. Contrast that with local governments, who are bound by the First Amendment, and prohibited from practicing ‘viewpoint discrimination.’” @pluralistic https://pluralistic.net/2022/12/15/useful-idiotsuseful-idiots/
@voron they are very lickable! but i wouldn't go much farther than that.
don’t be fooled. the humans are good.
the only way to durably address social problems is to give agency to those who are at risk of suffering them.
cf Anthony Kalulu (@KaluluAnthony@twitter.com) http://dear-humanity.org/effective-altruism-worse-for-poor/
an interesting meditation on how sharply convex (think backwards L shaped) marginal cost curves can explain explain why “demand” sometimes seems to show up in final goods prices much more than wages, while at other times might show up in final goods prices almost mechanically through wages. by @jwmason http://jwmason.org/slackwire/what-does-it-mean-to-say-that-inflation-is-caused-by-demand/
Tech "ecosystems" are not ecosystems at all. Plantations and monocultures would be better analogies: "the antithesis of biological abundance isn’t just biological paucity. It’s the excess growth of one thing at the expense of all others…We don’t live in a technology ecosystem…more like a zoo crossed with a detention centre. Or, to use an image that also conveys the beautiful lies that hold us in place, we live in a snow globe."
Wonderful, by @mariafarrell https://crookedtimber.org/2022/12/08/your-platform-is-not-an-ecosystem/ ht @mickfealty
"As for…scenarios, the least unfavorable…would be that of Germany after 1945…More likely...is the North Korean scenario: the isolation and radicalization of a fortress-Russia...A step further in the pessimism scale, Russia would become…a kind of Mordor ("black country"), a desolate land in which the forces of evil are preparing their revenge and reconquest…The Somalian scenario would…be that of the breakup of the Russian nation-empire." @BrunoTertrais@twitter.com https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/analysis/fall-russia
@GerardMacDonell i hear you brother lithium is just so pricey these days…
@GerardMacDonell (to be clear that was entirely a joke, there’s been nothing manic beyond lovely enthusiasm in your engagement.)
@GerardMacDonell maybe i should have as @austinc suggested included a do nothing option. i didn’t intend to be so disparaging. i genuinely do wonder how the Fed would behave if markets are down and the business press pessimistic while labor stats are great, if there is not undeniable inflation to force their hand.
@GerardMacDonell I don’t think invention of the wheel, I think in practical terms Chat AI will create work (filtering worthwhile communication from BS) more than it saves work. I think it is fascinating, how much of our linguistic behavior can be reproduced through a kind of statistical mimicry, it should Copernicus-style knock us down a peg in our perceived specialness, but only one peg, because there is an essence of humanness, care, actually giving a fuck, quite beyond ChatGPT
@GerardMacDonell no! not a joke! a genuine question.
@austinc @TradingPlacesResearch they used to be pretty explicit that employment beyond an estimate of NAIRU was unsustainable and should be countered. was that a violation of their mandate?
@TradingPlacesResearch @austinc they can see a flattish Phillips Curve in past and present data, but do they come under pressure to act proactively to restrain wages on the widespread intuition that wage growth must lead to price growth? or do they accommodate until actual inflation prints?
@TradingPlacesResearch @austinc are they happy when labor markets are very tight, unit labor costs are rising by virtue of labor share gains, but inflation is on track?
@austinc Good question!
@austinc (at some level, though, there is no nonpolicy. how do they decide what a “neutral rate”, neither accommodate or restrictive, would be?)
Now if only we had an “intellectual property” regime consistent with this goal.
from @GretchenVogel1@twitter.com https://www.science.org/content/article/global-plan-covid-19-vaccine-fairness-fell-short-will-next-time-be-different
Suppose there is a profits recession: the labor market remains strong, inflation subsides and with it some degree of firm pricing power, so margins are squeezed.
how does the Fed react: with low rates to support stock prices under pressure from tepid earnings, or with high rates to break labor power and try to sustain margins?
