@Alon @phillmv @stevenbodzin @BenRossTransit i think that’s right. no one expected the IDF to be so unprepared, they expected some hostages and another round of “mowing the lawn”, but suffered a catastrophic success. 1/

@Alon @phillmv @stevenbodzin @BenRossTransit but once that happened, their strategy has been to make the most of it in terms of inflaming passions, on the (somewhat thin) hope of broadening the war. and i think in that, Israel has been more a partner than it ought to be (and i think the Biden admin deserves some respect for a so-far successful combination of diplomacy and deterrence, despite the scale of horror broadcast to populations in the region). /fin

@Alon @phillmv @stevenbodzin @BenRossTransit (whatever al qaeda thought the US would or wouldn’t do, a combination of overreaction and incompetence by the US means that al qaeda’s broader objective of reducing US influence and any claim to moral authority in the region was achieved. the US won every military battle, but profoundly lost the war.)

@Alon @BenRossTransit i’ll grant you that the weeks of just bombing stuff were particularly weird. but the unblackpilling of 7.10 was a legit shock, how the $%€! was Gaza’s border so undefended? it is a genuine catastrophe for the sense of impregnability Israel relies upon. neither bombing nor invading undoes it. 1/

@Alon @BenRossTransit everyone knows, as Amichai Eliyahu has helpfully pointed out, Israel could literally nuke Gaza. but the costs of it doing so, not just to Palestinians but to Israel’s own position, render that “superior power” useless in practice. nuking Gaza would not restore the genuine respect for Israel’s competence and capacity that was lost 7.10. nor does lesser bombing. 2/

@Alon @BenRossTransit can a ground invasion? that depends how it works out. if it is maximally destructive, little will have been won, it’s just bombing by other means. Israel was respected for being competent, capable, clever, able to achieve its aims at moderate cost in its own resources and more broadly. It’s remarkable that Israel was able to normalize relations with so many Sunni Arab states despite Palestine, because Israel seemed actually able to contain the conflict. 3/

@Alon @BenRossTransit Hamas’ victory is that Israel cannot contain the conflict. Any maximalist response is continuing evidence of noncontainment. It doesn’t restore the pre 7.10 perception of Israeli competence, but flaunts its collapse. Arab-state elites never admired Israel for its ability to flatten stuff — they can do that too! — but for Pegasus, the Iron Dome, clever means of exerting hard power and still being able to dine in London. 4/

@Alon @BenRossTransit I’m not such a fan of all that stuff either, or the relationship of Arab state elites and their unhappy restive populations. But at any level of realpolitik, putting ideals and ethics aside, Israel’s government should think a bit harder about what forms of respect have served it and whether its present actions do anything to restore those. /fin

@Alon @BenRossTransit On 10.7 they celebrated the massacres. On 10.6 they railed against Hamas’ corruption. Hamas is not popular in Gaza, except on 10.7, neither on 10.6, nor on 10.8 after everybody has lost a loved one. Hamas’ leadership is undeterred, eager for the fourth, fifth Al Aqsa flood, ranting on about a nation of martyrs, however unwilling the martyrs and their families are. 1/

@Alon @BenRossTransit The undifferentiated families of Gaza do not make choices about terrorist operations in Israel. Some organized force does and will. Even if Israel gets to every Hamasian eating luxury meals in Qatar, the question is what will be a political basis for some likely corrupt governing force of Gaza when this is over. Do you think armed resistance to Israel — or simple vengeance and restoration of pride — will not be? 2/

@Alon @BenRossTransit I hope not. There are things Israel or Palestianians or both might yet do to create a new basis for Gaza’s governance. Hope actually could compete with vengeance as a governing principal. I’m still hoping for anyone wise enough to deliver anything other than death and dead ends. /fin

@BenRossTransit Hezbollah does not have the same attitude towards Lebanese casualties as Hamas. Iran does not have the same attitude towards Iranian casualties as Hamas. Hamas’ sole goal is Palestinian Islamic nationalism, and it is publicly and overtly a death cult willing to martyr as many Palestinians as it takes in pursuit of that. 1/

@BenRossTransit Hezbollah is effectively the government of much of Lebanon, which takes a position on Israel/Palestine, but serves its own interests first. It is allied with Iran, a power hostile to Israel in a contest for regional dominance, and both parties use Palestinians as an excuse for military action in service of the geopolitical goals of their alliance. Both are much more “rational” than Hamas, because they have constructive as well as destructive interests. 2/

@BenRossTransit Hamas does not. Its leadership is in exile, football fans masquerading as partisans like all the Palestinian flag wielding protestors of London. They are very clear that no cost in destruction matters to them more than victory in their game, in fact they welcome destruction as long as it weakens or discredits Israel. There is no path to a solution that does not involve some organization among Palestinians detaching them from Hamas’ nihilism. 3/

@BenRossTransit Fortunately they have had an ally in Netanyahu in preventing any such faction from emerging. /fin

@BenRossTransit during the initial period, prior to Israel’s very foolish response, the heat and discredit on those refusing to condemn Hamas as tremendous and growing. in a world where the only imagery was of gore in kibbutzim, where the governments of the Western worlf
who still despite everything disproportionately set narrative, condemnation would become universal. 1/

@BenRossTransit and what effectiveness? Israel would not be negotiating for hostages, the territory would be retaken, Gaza resealed. nothing would have been gained, Israel would have its army and air force poised and ready. 2/

@BenRossTransit you presume mass-killing — which is what Israel is doing, whether it is justified or not — is a deterrent rather than an accelerant. i think you are wrong. i think Hezbollah knows a war with Israel would be catastrophic to it, but may be forced by internal pressure into it by the anger of mass atrocity. 3/

@BenRossTransit i think it quite obvious that Hamas sees Palestinian casualties as a resource, not a cost, and works to maximize them. as in so many matters, Israel’s current government and Hamas work hand-in-hand. they share a common interest in opposing peace through half-measures, even though they have different preferences with respect to whole measures. /fin