if the yield curve is foreseeing a US-specific Trump inflation while the dollar is sharply strengthening, that’s predicting a heck of a strengthening in the “real exchange rate”, US wages and salaries super high in FX terms, not so great for reindustrialization. 1/
i’m not sure i buy it though. i guess i explain dollar strength as a preaction to expected tariffs, so i don’t expect so sharp an import price change let aline inflation, but then i can’t explain the yield curve. /fin