If Trump remains obstinately on this course, a US recession (at the very least) is certain. Whether the recession is global depends whether rest-of-world big economies can get over either their austerity fetish or their unwillingness to seriously tax the very rich. 1/

(Traditionally, it's deficit spending that's considered stimulus. But taxing the very wealthy affects overall demand almost not at all, while government spending still stimulates demand. Investment spending is a function of anticipated consumer demand much more than rich-person wealth.) /fin