it’s just hard to reconcile the FX market and the bond market right now.

if the yield curve is foreseeing a US-specific Trump inflation while the dollar is sharply strengthening, that’s predicting a heck of a strengthening in the “real exchange rate”, US wages and salaries super high in FX terms, not so great for reindustrialization. 1/

i’m not sure i buy it though. i guess i explain dollar strength as a preaction to expected tariffs, so i don’t expect so sharp an import price change let aline inflation, but then i can’t explain the yield curve. /fin

in reply to self

i wonder what the chatter is like among servicemen and attachés stationed abroad, working among allies in NATO roles.

a remake of “Occupied” except with the United States and Greenland.

@Arianity oh, i think Gensler did not do so well on crypto. when he started, it was clear he meant to aggressively reign in crypto. he ended up basically forced by lawsuits to normalize crypto, to approve crypto ETFs. cnbc.com/2024/01/11/secs-gensl

At a basic level, the USD's special status has been anchored by a security arrangement. Allied governments (except sometimes France) don't try to diversify out of it in part because it finances the US military umbrella. Change the arrangement, and others might become curious about say what the BRICs are up to.

"The ultimate function of the entrepreneurial ethic was (and is) to reconcile workers to precarity." (@heideggirl?) reviewing 's "Make Your Own Job: How the Entrepreneurial Work Ethic Exhausted America" washingtonpost.com/books/2025/ ht @SteveRoth

the genius move would be to use the anti-Denmark animus he is ginning up to justify compulsory licensing of Ozempic / Wegovy at generic prices. he'd become the most popular President in history.

@jockr @carolannie ☹️

@susannah@octodon.social @Tarnport ☹️

i'd be more positively disposed if the plan was to divide Canada into states, each with the population of Wyoming. Republicans like small states, right?

@Nichol not at all clear! they only come in packages of two, i think!

@carolannie like California!

@realcaseyrollins agreed. i'd like him to stop threatening our friends and allies too. it's enough that he threatens us.

people act like Trump is trying to strong-arm Canada or something, but actually he's offering them a sweetheart deal with two whole senators.

democracy depends upon collective cognition, and we cannot cogitate well or sanely while dopamine machines owned and manipulated by Musk and Zuckerberg constitute the public and coordinate the effort. cf @henryfarrell programmablemutter.com/p/were-

@realcaseyrollins @11112011 yes, and it matters to them who wins those competitions, but the structure of the game still ignores the interests and perspectives of everybody else doing different things. just because a tournament is competitive — even genuinely, bitterly competitive — doesn’t mean it’s open and serving everyone.

@billseitz (Drum often hides behind aggregation in ways that arguably miss important things. It’s the second half of the piece, reminding us that regulation has its virtues as well as costs, that I thought particularly worthwhile, although it doesn’t mean the structure of regulation shouldn’t be improved.)

@realcaseyrollins @11112011 they’re competing to do the same thing. oligopoly is not decentralization, and yes, true decentralization requires not just multiple nodes but nodes that are diverse on the situations and interests. pluralism among influential parties is not optional if one wants institutions that attend to the full public’s interests.

@realcaseyrollins @11112011 a handful of platforms mostly owned by similarly situated people with similar incentives does not constitute a diverse marketplace of interests. (TikTok is a bit different, though not necessarily in reassuring ways.) Musk’s influence over Trump comes from writing checks and owning and being willing to crassly manipulate one of those influential platforms. it is not some happenstance prior to these things.