small policy changes usually have small effects.
in “studies” with noisy data and imperfect models, small effects may be difficult to detect, may fail to overcome a null hypothesis.
then “studies say” the policy change is ineffective. giving ammunition to interests working to prevent large policy changes that might have large effects.
is a cage match like a cellmate?
reality: badly acted, badly written, often cliché, unpredictable.
kind of Russia’s January 6, right?
it all feels so feudal.
@admitsWrongIfProven i might prefer a world in which we were a bit farther along at addressing them. but we are where we are, so let’s roll up our sleeves.
The question is never should there be a debate. On every question significantly contested, there is in some sense a debate ongoing.
The question is how should the debate be structured, so that forms of argument and evidence likely to elicit truth are not outshouted by appeals to prejudice, sophistry, selection bias masquerading as erudition, aggressive mere assertion, engendering trust at an emotional level, all the many tricks orthogonal to truth that nevertheless persuade.
Wokeness stubbed my toe.
"de-invention" is a great coinge, by @emc2 https://elk.zone/indieweb.social/@emc2/110579449118556457
My eyes.
A pair of blue glasses in front of a pair of green glasses, set on a table with picture frames, faux sunflowers, windows, sky in the background.
@DetroitDan Nixon may have prevented an end of the Vietnam War before he could get elected and end it. Nixon’s and Reagan’s pre election intercessions make today’s “foreign meddling” scandals look like child’s play.
a strange artifact left among the detritus of the neoconservative era is that nationalist ideologues now claim theirs is a creed of peace without being laughed out of every room for saying so.
"Maybe we could just be more realistic about the fact that a bunch of people don’t like getting shots, but it’s better for society if they do. So every time you get your annual flu shot, you get a check." #MattYglesias https://www.slowboring.com/p/a-vaccine-discussion-worth-having
( a great example of the style of policy i call "market dirigisme" https://www.interfluidity.com/v2/8654.html )
"If people know that the pharmaceutical industry would kill them to make a profit (as Purdue Pharma did, when it deliberately misled doctors and patients about the addictiveness of Oxycontin), then it’s going to be harder to convince them to believe in genuine necessary medical interventions. If you know that an institution has economic incentives to lie to you and take advantage of you, your distrust of it makes sense." https://www.currentaffairs.org/2023/06/how-can-we-trust-what-we-see ht @AliceMarshall
@admitsWrongIfProven now i’m practically tap dancing.
@admitsWrongIfProven so much more to learn!
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